A game of patience

Hope is a dangerous thing, as investors found out yesterday. If the Finance Minister was guilty of presenting an insipid budget that was low on the detail that the market wanted, investors too were perhaps guilty of expecting too much, too soon. That doesn't absolve the Finance Minister of a budget that is low on ambition, boldness and vision but at least it teaches investors to not hope for the moon going into a policy event.

The real damage was done when the FM spelt out the 6.8% deficit number implying a large market borrowing programme with little detail on how he "would get back on the FRBM path". Global rating agencies will pass their judgement in the next few days but the bond market didn't wait that long. The benchmark bond yield shot past 7% raising fears of interest rate spikes and triggering off a collapse in stock prices. At a macro level, that perhaps was the undoing of the market. At a more micro level, a lot of sectors had run up expecting substantial boosts from the budget. Education, real estate, textile and fertiliser stocks which had meaningful rallies leading up to the event collapsed completely . The surprise was Infrastructure, where stocks sold off as well, as apart from an increased outlay for the NHAI the budget was a bit low on bold moves.

Then there was disinvestment, which the market had pinned some hopes on. The pitiful Rs 1100 crore figure which the FM unveiled dashed those hopes. That number is truly inexplicable.

Not that this budget had nothing postive for the stock market and corporate India. The scrapping of FBT, extension of 10A/10B for IT companies, removal of CTT and no rollback of excise cuts were all positives, partly offset by the hike in MAT. The scrapping of the surcharge on personal income taxes may even be a limited consumption trigger. Tobacco companies were spared the axe this time and ITC was one of the few stocks that ended in the green, contrary to investor fears.

Yet what the market wanted was a green signal, that finally the drought on reforms is over. That a government, shorn of the Left, will press ahead with bold policy moves. The charitable view is to accord the FM the benefit of doubt : he didn't have enough time to unveil a big bang budget and the best is yet to come, over the next few months and in the next February budget. The cynical view is that the market is running ahead of itself; despite the electoral surprise, things will improve only incrementally and over a much longer duration than investors want. The truth, as often, perhaps lies somewhere in the middle. While investing in India, the virtue of patience cannot be overstated.

Source : Silicon India

Tatas, SBI, Infy among world's top 50 reputed firms

The Tata Group, State Bank of India (SBI) and Infosys Technologies are among 17 Indian firms that figure among the top 50 in a list of the world's 200 most reputable companies.

With a pulse score of 80.89 on a scale of 0-100, the US-based Reputation Institute ranked the Tata Group 11th above global giants like Google, Microsoft, General electric, Toyota, Coca-Cola, Intel and Unilever.

Italy-based chocolate producer Ferrero was ranked as the most reputable company on the planet right now. With its pulse score moving from 83.52 last year up to 85.17, Ferrero came up from fourth place last year to first, more than a full point ahead of second ranked IKEA.

"However it is the people of India who love their companies the best," noted US business magazine Forbes. "Of India's 27 corporations ranked by the institute, 24 (89 percent) placed above the average. Seventeen of them landed in the top third of the list."

The Reputation Institute's global pulse of 600 companies is a measure of corporate reputation calculated by averaging perceptions of four indicators - trust, esteem, admiration and good feeling - obtained from a representative sample of at least 100 respondents in the companies' home countries.

SBI, India's largest bank, is ranked 29th with a score of 78.11. India's second largest software exporter Infosys is at 39th, with a pulse score of 77.45.

Larsen & Toubro comes next at 47th position with a pulse score of 76.58, while India's largest carmaker Maruti Suzki has been ranked 49th with a pulse score of of 76.26.

Other Indian firms in the top 200 are: Hindustan Unilever (69 - 74.99); ITC Ltd (95 - 73.50); Canara Bank (102- 73.34); Hindustan Petroleum (111 - 73.08); Indian Oil (112 - 73.01); Wipro (116 - 72.77); Mahindra & Mahindra (137 - 71.61); Bharti Airtel (163 - 70.32); Bank of Baroda(174 -- 69.81); Bharat Petroleum(175 - 69.79) and Punjab National Bank (177- 69.67.)

Johnson & Johnson, which placed first in the US for reputation, lands third globally. Kraft Foods places eighth, making the US one of only two countries with two businesses in the global top 10. Brazil is the other. Its Petrobras and Sadia landed fourth and fifth respectively.

Brazil had the second highest percentage of its participating companies ranked above the global average at 76 percent, while 62 percent of American companies received pulse scores above the average.

FDI flow to India will remain robust: Goldman Sachs

The global economic slowdown will not affect the foreign direct investment (FDI) flow to India as the domestic demand remains "resilient", investment banker Goldman sachs said.

"FDI is showing positive signals," Tushar Poddar, an economist with Goldman Sachs said, adding: "We expect FDI inflows to remain significant in 2009-10, given India's relatively resilient domestic demand momentum."

According to the bank, the FDI flow to India during September-January - the months when the credit crisis was at its peak - amounted to $9.2 billion, higher than $7.9 billion in the corresponding period last year.

Pranjul Bhandari, another economist at Goldman, said: "India's balance of payments (BOP) may have had its worst quarter in October-December 2009, when it showed a deficit of $18 billion."

However, "in 2009-10, we expect the current account deficit to narrow to 1.3 per cent of GDP from 3.5 per cent last fiscal with the trade deficit narrowing considerably,"she added.

Notwithstanding the weakness in trade credit and foreign portfolio inflows, the basic balance of payments (BBOP) are expected to move to positive this fiscal, the economists said.

According to them, the major risks India faces are "political uncertainty and the high fiscal deficit".

"Portfolio investment and trade credit on the other hand, have fallen sharply and we expect them to remain weak this fiscal," Poddar said.

"NRI deposits showed an up tick last fiscal, but we expect it to remain flat in 2009-10. We expect NRI deposits coming due in the next year ($32 billion) to get rolled over to a large extent, but do not expect large fresh inflows," he added.

External commercial borrowings (ECBs) are expected to moderate in in the current fiscal. Although ECBs have slowed to $9.1 billion during September-February from $11.8 billion in the previous six months.

"In 2009-10, we expect ECBs to remain positive due to higher growth and yields in India, notwithstanding the $7 billion of outstanding commercial loans coming due," Bhandari said.

Private remittances from Indians working abroad slowed to $4.3 billion in the October-December quarter from $7.9 billion in the July-September quarter.

"We expect this to remain weak, but do not expect much further weakness from current levels," she said.

Bhandari added that the merchandise trade deficit had fallen to $5 billion in February from a peak of $14 billion in August.

"This is likely to turn the BBOP into positive from a current negative, and is also expected to make the overall BOP stronger," she said.

Taken From : Economic Times